Could ward poll be a preview of Progress Toronto collapse?

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Mere days before election night, a new poll suggests voters may be souring on Progress Toronto and its slate of favoured candidates.

Mainstreet Research said its numbers are hinting at tight races in Parkdale-High Park, Spadina-Fort York and Scarborough-Rouge Park. All three wards feature candidates with close ties to the political group Progress Toronto, which is closely aligned with incumbent mayor Olivia Chow.

Quito Maggi, Mainstreet’s president, warned that his polling data for Toronto’s ward races has an unusually large margin of error of at least plus or minus five percentage points. Municipal polling is tough and the findings should be viewed as “broad strokes,” Maggi told the Toronto Sun.

“The snapshot is intended to be more about the order and the order of magnitude, not necessarily precision,” he said.

Still, his figures suggest a trend away from Chow and Progress Toronto.

Maggi told the Sun his poll comes amid a broader trend against incumbents across Canada, with a recent change election in Quebec and another expected in B.C.

In what would be a massive upset, Ausma Malik, one of Chow’s deputy mayors, could be in danger of losing her downtown ward. Ian Cunningham, a career executive in the tech and finance sectors, had more than a third of Spadina-Fort York’s voter support, at 37.6%, Mainstreet found.

Malik still held the advantage at 39.1% support.

In a break between door knocking, Cunningham told the Sun that the poll was a sign of a “quiet grassroots campaign” paying off.

“What I’m hearing at the doors is kind of reflected there,” he said. “People feel like they’re not listened to.”

“There’s an appetite for change, so we’re just gonna keep grinding,” Cunningham added.

Voters tell him they’re upset by City Hall’s “lack of response” on homelessness and addiction issues, he said, explaining noise and traffic are also key issues in the ward.

Maggi told the Sun one of the limitations of his data is that the opinions of Spadina-Fort York residents who live in single-family homes may be overrepresented.

Cunningham, however, said he hears similar things both inside and outside of highrise apartments and condo towers, which account for more than 80% of the homes in the ward.

“I would say a tremendous amount of frustration is coming out of condos,” Cunningham said.

Allen’s advantage ‘very exciting’

Perhaps Mainstreet’s biggest surprise is that the poll suggests that challenger Shawn Allen isn’t merely ahead but might be headed for a landslide win over Scarborough-Rouge Park incumbent Neethan Shan.

Shan won the ward last fall in a byelection, after an endorsement by Progress Toronto. Allen came third.

Allen said he’s pleased and even a little surprised by how strong his latest polling numbers look, but he’s taking nothing for granted in the final weekend.

“I gotta keep hitting the doors,” he told the Sun, “but it’s very exciting.”

Mainstreet put Allen at 37.1% support, well above Shan’s 29.4%. Zakir Patel was third with 11.6%.

Mainstreet’s poll paints a more muddled picture for Parkdale-High Park, which is the only race of the three without an incumbent.

Nadia Guerrera, with 35.2%, was just a few points ahead of the 29.2% in favour of Diana Chan McNally, who is one of the six candidates for council being touted by Progress Toronto in this election.

Adam Pham is third at 15.5% while Debbie King, a local school board trustee and a former darling of Progress Toronto, was at a microscopic 3.3%.

McNally has been positioned as the heir apparent to Gord Perks, who represented the area on City Council for two decades. She has also made conflicting statements on the campaign trail, as the Sun has reported.

In a press release, Guerrera called Mainstreet’s numbers “encouraging.”

“I can feel the momentum behind our campaign, but make no mistake, this is still a very tight race,” Guerrera was quoted as saying. “After 20 years of the same representative, Parkdale High-Park is ready for a change.”

jholmes@postmedia.com